New strategic non-nuclear threat – ”The Oreshnik Case”

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New strategic non-nuclear threat – ”The Oreshnik Case”

Nenad M. Miloradović, Goran Vukadinović, Boban Zlatković

The course of the ongoing large-scale conflict in Ukraine—which history will, for many reasons, most likely remember as a “small” Third World War—has been marked by the constant testing of classical, modernized, and newly produced weaponry and military equipment, primarily of tactical range, across all branches of the armed forces. This has, in turn, generated organizational changes in unit structures as well as new tactical and operational procedures for their employment. On 21 November 2024, the conflict also witnessed the first use of a new type of strategic weapon. The balance of power established between the Russian Federation (RF) and the United States (US) during the Cold War, based on nuclear capabilities (i.e., nuclear deterrence), did not change significantly even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, primarily because it continued to guarantee mutual destruction. In other words, it remained impossible to destroy the adversary while sustaining acceptable own losses in the event of a direct confrontation. The “nuclear triad” (land, air, and sea-based nuclear delivery systems) has remained the principal guarantor of peace among the great powers to this day. Within this state of equilibrium, the great (nuclear) powers directed their technological capacities toward the development and production of non-nuclear weapon systems that could— with high probability—overcome existing or projected defense systems and inflict devastating destruction deep within the adversary’s strategic depth. This has given rise to what is now referred to as a new “strategic non-nuclear threat.” Over the last two decades, hypersonic systems have been developed for this purpose, as part of the competition between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on one side, and the “Collective West” on the other. However, as of November 21st 2024, a new element of this “strategic non-nuclear threat” has emerged under the name Oreshnik—a new intermediate-range ballistic missile equipped with a large number of non-nuclear warheads, whose range allows it to threaten the entire European continent and against which, at present, there appears to be no adequate defense.

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